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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ panthers week 11, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-5
0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
7 mph
20
CARPanthers
3-7
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
0
0
Panthers
7
0
10
3
20

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
185
374
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
3.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.03
Passing Yards
145
258
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.03
Rushing Yards
40
116
Rush Attempts
17
34
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.55
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-10.06
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-33
--
Sack EPA
-7.54
-0.46
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
45
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-4.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-191
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-175.0
Home QB Adjustment
-168.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-31.9
Final Difference
-136.6
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
11/03
3.4
74
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
10/18
-1.6
33
10/25
1.6
55
11/01
0.3
48
11/08
-3.0
24
11/15
6.1
83
P. Walker headshot

P. Walker

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-168.8
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Lions logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
18
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Panthers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28

EPA

EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
13
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
28
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-3
L
W
U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/18
18
W
W
U
10/25
1
W
W
U
11/01
-20
L
L
O
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
3
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O