DETLions
7-7
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
20°F
12 mph
37
CARPanthers
5-9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
20°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
6
10
23
Panthers
7
17
7
6
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
570
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
6.1
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.41
Passing Yards
336
--
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.65
Rushing Yards
45
320
Rush Attempts
18
43
Yards / Rush
2.5
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.54
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
16
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.49
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.04
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-7.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
Panthers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-27.4
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
15
19
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U