DETLions
0-6
19
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
028
LARRams
5-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
10
6
3
0
19
Rams
3
14
0
11
28
Spread
+16.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
376
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
278
329
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.36
Rushing Yards
137
47
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.36
-2.28
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
35
Penalty EPA
-9.11
-2.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+362
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
22
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U