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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ rams week 7, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
0-6
19
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
28
LARRams
5-1
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
10
6
3
0
19
Rams
3
14
0
11
28

Spread

DET logo
+16.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
415
376
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
278
329
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.36
Rushing Yards
137
47
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.36
-2.28
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
35
Penalty EPA
-9.11
-2.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+362
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
12/10
-0.7
40
12/20
-4.2
18
12/27
-6.1
10
01/16
-1.5
33
09/12
4.3
81
09/20
5.2
84
09/26
-0.9
46
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
1.0
51
12/20
2.2
60
12/26
-7.1
8
01/03
3.8
72
09/12
6.1
88
09/19
0.1
54
09/26
8.3
93
10/03
2.9
75
10/07
2.3
70
10/17
4.1
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
22
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
25
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
17
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/26
-40
L
L
U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
09/12
-8
L
W
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-11
L
L
U
01/03
11
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/16
-14
L
L
O
09/12
20
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
L
O
09/26
10
W
W
O
10/03
-17
L
L
O
10/07
9
W
W
U
10/17
27
W
W
U