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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ rams week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
8-5
34
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
41
LARRams
10-3
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
17
0
10
34
Rams
7
10
17
7
41

Spread

LAR logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
396
519
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
6.4
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.24
Passing Yards
326
360
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.22
Rushing Yards
70
159
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
21
30
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.49
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-2.13
-3.30
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
8
Penalty EPA
-3.10
-3.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+22.1
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
11/09
8.5
95
11/16
-5.1
16
11/23
-0.7
45
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
2.5
68
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.3
90
10/02
8.1
95
10/12
-1.6
38
10/19
5.4
86
11/02
6.2
89
11/09
5.5
87
11/16
-0.3
47
11/23
5.0
85
11/30
-2.9
29
12/07
6.8
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
8
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16

EPA

EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
8
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
11/16
-7
L
L
U
11/23
7
W
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
11/02
24
W
W
U
11/09
16
W
W
O
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
27
W
W
U
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
28
W
W
O