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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ ravens week 7, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
5-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph
38
BALRavens
4-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
6
6
Ravens
14
14
7
3
38

Spread

BAL logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
337
503
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
4.6
9.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.46
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.87
Rushing Yards
84
146
Rush Attempts
14
27
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.61
-5.12
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.99
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
57
45
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-6.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
12/18
2.5
73
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
4.9
84
01/08
0.9
58
09/07
-0.1
48
09/17
6.1
87
09/24
1.5
60
09/28
-1.3
41
10/08
6.0
86
10/15
5.1
82
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
11/07
0.5
55
11/20
-1.3
44
11/27
2.9
75
12/04
-6.4
12
09/10
-3.7
26
09/17
7.9
93
09/24
6.1
87
10/01
6.7
90
10/08
-2.7
31
10/15
2.5
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Lions logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
5
1
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
11
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Ravens logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2

EPA

EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
4
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
30
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
7
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
01/01
31
W
W
U
01/08
4
W
W
U
09/07
1
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
09/28
14
W
W
O
10/08
18
W
W
O
10/15
14
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
8
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
L
U
01/08
-11
L
P
O
01/15
-7
L
W
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
U
10/01
25
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
8
W
W
U