DETLions
5-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph
38
BALRavens
4-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
6
6
Ravens
14
14
7
3
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
503
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
4.6
9.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.46
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.87
Rushing Yards
84
146
Rush Attempts
14
27
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.61
-5.12
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.99
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
57
45
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
1
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
30
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U