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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ ravens week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
6-5
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
4 mph
44
BALRavens
6-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
13
7
20
Ravens
3
17
0
18
38

Spread

BAL logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
372
370
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
6.1
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.22
Passing Yards
294
--
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.16
Rushing Yards
78
101
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.69
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-8.47
--
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
45
25
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-2.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
09/18
-0.3
50
09/24
0.1
53
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75
11/23
-1.6
41
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Value
Ptile
09/17
0.1
53
09/24
-11.8
1
10/01
-4.8
20
10/08
0.2
54
10/15
-8.4
7
10/22
-2.7
34
10/26
-1.4
43
11/05
-0.4
49
11/19
-3.6
27
11/27
-1.2
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Lions logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
32
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Ravens logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19

EPA

EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
14
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
9
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
14
W
W
U
09/24
-4
L
L
O
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
14
W
W
U
09/24
-37
L
L
O
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
13
W
W
O
10/15
-3
L
L
O
10/22
-8
L
L
O
10/26
40
W
W
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/19
23
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
U