DETLions
6-5
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
4 mph
44
BALRavens
6-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
13
7
20
Ravens
3
17
0
18
38
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
370
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
6.1
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.22
Passing Yards
294
--
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.16
Rushing Yards
78
101
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.69
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-8.47
--
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
45
25
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-2.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+75.1
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
14
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
9
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U