DETLions
7-4
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
013
NOSaints
5-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
10
6
9
28
Saints
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
369
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
6.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.22
Passing Yards
337
319
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.17
Rushing Yards
85
50
Rush Attempts
23
12
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.46
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-7
Sack EPA
-2.14
-1.54
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
39
83
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-13.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+27.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+42.6
Final Difference
147.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
24
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
7
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U