DETLions
8-3
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
028
NOSaints
5-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
21
3
3
6
33
Saints
0
7
14
7
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
362
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
205
249
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.21
Rushing Yards
142
113
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.60
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-1.88
-4.57
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
50
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+36.9
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U