DET logo
DET
8-3
33
28
NO
5-6
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
21
3
3
6
33
Saints
0
7
14
7
28

Spread

DET logo
-4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
347
362
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
205
249
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.21
Rushing Yards
142
113
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.60
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-1.88
-4.57
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
50
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Lions logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Saints logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
24
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
18
30