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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ steelers week 10, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
0-8
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
12 mph
16
PITSteelers
5-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
6
0
16
Steelers
7
3
3
3
16

Spread

DET logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
306
387
Total Plays
68
81
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.17
Passing Yards
77
--
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.25
Rushing Yards
229
145
Rush Attempts
39
31
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
22%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.68
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-5.84
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-8.62
-6.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,349
Home Field
+23.0
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.4
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-97.5
Home QB Adjustment
-114.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.9
Market Regression
-56.4
Final Difference
121.7
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Value
Ptile
12/27
-6.1
10
01/16
-1.5
33
09/12
4.3
81
09/20
5.2
84
09/26
-0.9
46
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-114.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.5
28
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Lions logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Steelers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
19
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-40
L
L
U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
09/12
-8
L
W
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O