DETLions
0-8
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
12 mph
16
PITSteelers
5-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
6
0
16
Steelers
7
3
3
3
16
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
387
Total Plays
68
81
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.17
Passing Yards
77
--
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.25
Rushing Yards
229
145
Rush Attempts
39
31
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
22%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.68
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-5.84
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-8.62
-6.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,352
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.4
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-97.5
Home QB Adjustment
-114.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.9
Market Regression
-56.3
Final Difference
121.5
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-114.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
19
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U