DETLions
4-3
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
4-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
10
13
Texans
0
14
3
3
20
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
269
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.01
Passing Yards
231
164
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.02
Rushing Yards
58
105
Rush Attempts
14
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.07
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-22
Sack EPA
-1.33
-5.36
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
49
Penalty EPA
-7.75
-5.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
8
4
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U