DETLions
1-1
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
44
TENTitans
0-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
6
3
7
25
0
41
Titans
4
10
0
15
3
32
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
585
437
Total Plays
93
61
Yards / Play
6.3
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
444
--
Comp/Att
43/56(77%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.36
Rushing Yards
141
59
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
36
21
Passing 1st downs
23
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.75
-9.02
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.49
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
91
32
Penalty EPA
-11.73
-4.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
Titans+4.0
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
-38.5
Final Difference
-26.8
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Titans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U