DETLions
2-0
26
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
023
MINVikings
0-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
0
0
10
13
3
26
Vikings
6
14
0
3
0
23
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
321
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
338
189
Comp/Att
32/46(70%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.16
Rushing Yards
20
132
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
1.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
41%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-40
-22
Sack EPA
-7.90
-5.50
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
65
79
Penalty EPA
-8.24
-7.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
20
31
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U