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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
1-1
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
28
MINVikings
1-1
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
10
0
24
Vikings
0
14
0
14
28

Spread

DET logo
+6.5

Total

PUSH
52
P

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
416
373
Total Plays
76
67
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
250
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.03
Rushing Yards
139
123
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
30
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
19%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.51
-5.24
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.90
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-2.42
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+14.0
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
124.3
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36
12/19
4.4
81
01/09
3.4
78
09/11
-1.4
43
09/18
1.9
67
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Value
Ptile
11/14
2.9
75
11/21
6.4
89
11/28
-0.4
50
12/05
3.6
79
12/09
-2.5
34
12/20
-9.1
6
12/26
2.1
68
01/09
1.7
65
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21

EPA

EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
2
12
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29

EPA

EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
28
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
8
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
01/02
-22
L
L
O
01/09
7
W
W
O
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
9
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
3
W
W
O
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
-2
L
L
O
12/09
8
W
W
O
12/20
8
W
W
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-27
L
L
O
01/09
14
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U