DETLions
1-1
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
028
MINVikings
1-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
10
0
24
Vikings
0
14
0
14
28
Spread
+6.5
Total
PUSH
52
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
373
Total Plays
76
67
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
250
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.03
Rushing Yards
139
123
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
30
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
19%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.51
-5.24
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.90
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-2.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
Lions+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+14.0
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
126.0
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
2
12
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U