DETLions
4-1
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
029
MINVikings
5-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
21
7
3
31
Vikings
10
0
7
6
23
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
383
Total Plays
56
53
Yards / Play
7.0
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.01
Passing Yards
247
244
Comp/Att
22/25(88%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.03
Rushing Yards
144
139
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.35
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.83
-3.83
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-33
-15
Sack EPA
-7.22
-3.93
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
49
59
Penalty EPA
-7.88
-6.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model45.5%
Spread Pick
Lions+1.5
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+29.6
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
+12.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-31.2
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U