DETLions
4-4
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
016
MINVikings
5-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
3
7
0
6
6
22
Vikings
0
3
6
7
0
16
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
337
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.11
Passing Yards
214
259
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
97
78
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.44
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-1.43
-4.05
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
57
54
Penalty EPA
-3.66
-8.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U