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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 9, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-4
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
16
MINVikings
5-2
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
3
7
0
6
6
22
Vikings
0
3
6
7
0
16

Spread

DET logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
311
337
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.11
Passing Yards
214
259
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
97
78
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.44
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-1.43
-4.05
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
57
54
Penalty EPA
-3.66
-8.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
12/27
5.7
86
01/03
3.2
74
09/11
10.6
98
09/18
-3.0
27
09/25
6.1
87
10/02
-5.4
14
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
2.5
68
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
-1.1
44
12/20
2.7
70
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40
10/03
3.4
75
10/09
4.7
82
10/23
-7.2
7
10/31
-4.3
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
24
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20

EPA

EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
29
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
15
W
W
O
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
L
U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-7
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/09
18
W
W
O
10/23
-11
L
L
U
10/31
-10
L
L
U