DETLions
3-4
9
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
024
MINVikings
4-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
0
3
9
Vikings
7
10
0
1
18
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
283
Total Plays
70
46
Yards / Play
3.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.07
Passing Yards
143
155
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.09
Rushing Yards
66
128
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.16
-11.70
Sacks
10
1
Sack Yards
-56
-9
Sack EPA
-14.02
-0.73
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
66
15
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-2.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
112.4
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U