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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 9, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-4
9
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
24
MINVikings
4-3
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
0
3
9
Vikings
7
10
0
1
18

Spread

MIN logo
-5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
209
283
Total Plays
70
46
Yards / Play
3.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.07
Passing Yards
143
155
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.09
Rushing Yards
66
128
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.16
-11.70
Sacks
10
1
Sack Yards
-56
-9
Sack EPA
-14.02
-0.73
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
66
15
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-2.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+21.7
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+6.1
Final Difference
111.7
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
1.6
64
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
3.4
77
12/31
-9.7
3
09/09
0.6
51
09/16
9.6
95
09/23
0.1
47
09/27
10.4
97
10/07
4.9
78
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
25
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
21
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
10
W
W
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-4-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
5
W
L
O
01/21
-31
L
L
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
0
T
L
O
09/23
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
O
10/07
2
W
W
U
10/14
10
W
P
O
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U