DETLions
1-7
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
027
MINVikings
7-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
7
0
10
Vikings
3
7
7
10
27
Spread
17
P
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
492
Total Plays
76
63
Yards / Play
3.9
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.03
Passing Yards
204
340
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
11.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.42
Rushing Yards
93
152
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
35%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-8.44
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-4
Sack EPA
-4.28
-1.29
Penalties
4
13
Penalty Yards
40
91
Penalty EPA
-3.44
-11.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+406
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,270
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
+10.3
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-2-2
O/U