DETLions
4-4
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
034
MINVikings
5-4
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
7
14
24
Vikings
10
3
3
18
34
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
405
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
308
207
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.14
Rushing Yards
60
198
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.31
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-2.83
-3.05
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
57
47
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-7.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U