nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
4-4
24
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
34
MINVikings
5-4
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
7
14
24
Vikings
10
3
3
18
34

Spread

MIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
368
405
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
308
207
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.14
Rushing Yards
60
198
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.31
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-2.83
-3.05
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
57
47
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-7.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-24.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
01/01
10.4
97
01/07
8.1
94
09/09
0.8
55
09/16
-1.1
42
09/23
6.4
88
09/30
-0.6
46
10/14
2.9
68
10/22
1.0
56
10/28
10.2
96
11/04
1.0
56
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53
10/21
-9.4
3
10/25
-4.1
24
11/04
-9.3
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-4
L
L
O
01/07
-17
L
L
O
09/09
4
W
L
O
09/16
-8
L
L
P
09/23
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-7
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/22
-6
L
W
U
10/28
4
W
W
O
11/04
17
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
P
U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O