DETLions
10-4
30
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
024
MINVikings
7-7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
6
7
30
Vikings
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
390
Total Plays
77
51
Yards / Play
5.1
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.02
Passing Yards
246
373
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.16
Rushing Yards
143
17
Rush Attempts
36
11
Yards / Rush
4.0
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.99
-9.30
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-38
Sack EPA
-1.65
-7.35
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
52
64
Penalty EPA
-8.09
-8.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+16.8
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-44.0
Home QB Adjustment
-41.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-41.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
29
9
Fumbles / Game
29
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U