GBPackers
-
28
TBD
Candlestick Park
69°F
6 mph
34
SF49ers
-
TBD
Candlestick Park
69°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
7
7
28
49ers
7
7
7
13
34
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
494
Total Plays
58
75
Yards / Play
6.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.18
Passing Yards
322
404
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.65
Rushing Yards
63
90
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.69
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-2.37
-2.01
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
44
85
Penalty EPA
-4.86
-8.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
112.6
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
22
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
25
6
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
17
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U