GBPackers
5-2
34
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
5 mph
17
SF49ers
4-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
10
3
34
49ers
3
0
0
14
17
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
337
Total Plays
63
53
Yards / Play
6.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.04
Passing Yards
294
282
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.08
Rushing Yards
111
55
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.44
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-0.33
-6.06
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
33
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
49ers+6.0
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-58.3
Home QB Adjustment
-41.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-5.2
Final Difference
-96.9
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-41.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
1
9
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U