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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ 49ers week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-2
34
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
5 mph
17
SF49ers
4-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
10
3
34
49ers
3
0
0
14
17

Spread

GB logo
-6

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
405
337
Total Plays
63
53
Yards / Play
6.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.04
Passing Yards
294
282
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.08
Rushing Yards
111
55
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.44
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-0.33
-6.06
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
33
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-5.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-58.3
Home QB Adjustment
-41.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
-104.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
-3.2
30
01/12
0.7
57
01/19
2.1
67
09/13
12.9
98
09/20
1.1
52
09/27
6.1
84
10/05
9.0
95
10/18
-12.8
1
10/25
6.5
86
11/01
5.9
83
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-41.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62
10/04
-5.6
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8

EPA

EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
5
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
1
9
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
22
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
7
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
3
W
L
U
01/12
5
W
W
O
01/19
-17
L
L
O
09/13
9
W
W
O
09/20
21
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/05
14
W
W
U
10/18
-28
L
L
U
10/25
15
W
W
U
11/01
-6
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/19
17
W
W
O
02/02
-11
L
L
U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
11/01
-10
L
L
O