GBPackers
8-2
8
TBD
Levi's Stadium
63°F
7 mph
37
SF49ers
9-1
TBD
Levi's Stadium
63°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
8
0
8
49ers
10
13
7
7
37
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
339
Total Plays
71
45
Yards / Play
2.8
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.22
Passing Yards
83
227
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
2.2
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.41
Rushing Yards
117
112
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
7%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.90
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-38
-26
Sack EPA
-12.45
-5.31
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
50
78
Penalty EPA
-5.10
-16.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+28.6
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-38.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.6
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
22
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
2
27
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U