GBPackers
12-5
31
TBD
Candlestick Park
48°F
5 mph
45
SF49ers
11-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
48°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
8
7
3
7
25
49ers
7
17
7
14
45
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
579
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
6.3
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.39
Passing Yards
248
256
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.15
Rushing Yards
104
323
Rush Attempts
16
43
Yards / Rush
6.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
15
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
42%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.36
-4.21
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-2.49
-1.38
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
26
86
Penalty EPA
-4.67
-6.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
49ers-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+102.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
100.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
2
27
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
7-2-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U