GBPackers
-
10
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
10 mph
3
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
0
3
10
Bears
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
254
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
3.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.33
Passing Yards
166
208
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
47
46
Rush Attempts
22
15
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
17%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.69
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-37
-20
Sack EPA
-8.94
-9.44
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
71
107
Penalty EPA
-9.91
-9.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U