GBPackers
1-2
38
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
3 mph
17
CHIBears
2-1
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
16
1
38
Bears
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
496
Total Plays
47
77
Yards / Play
7.6
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.53
-0.01
Passing Yards
302
261
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.88
-0.19
Rushing Yards
56
235
Rush Attempts
18
41
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
33
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
16
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.26
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
-0.84
-2.50
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
70
46
Penalty EPA
-11.04
-9.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
Bears+2.0
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
12.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
2-6-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U