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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
6-3
20
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
5 mph
19
CHIBears
4-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
6
20
Bears
3
7
9
0
19

Spread

CHI logo
+6

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
366
391
Total Plays
44
69
Yards / Play
8.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.17
Passing Yards
260
212
Comp/Att
13/17(76%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
15.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.77
+0.10
Rushing Yards
106
179
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
5
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.98
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-19
Sack EPA
-1.34
-3.18
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
50
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
-9.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-29.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
01/07
7.3
92
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-29.0
Value
Ptile
09/08
-7.5
7
09/15
-10.2
2
09/22
-1.0
42
09/29
-1.9
36
10/06
6.7
88
10/13
5.5
81
10/27
-6.6
10
11/03
-9.5
3
11/10
-12.5
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
8
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7

EPA

EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
20
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
9
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-8
L
L
U
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
P
U
09/22
-5
L
L
U
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/06
26
W
W
O
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-20
L
L
U
11/10
-16
L
L
U