GBPackers
6-3
20
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
5 mph
19
CHIBears
4-5
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
6
20
Bears
3
7
9
0
19
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
391
Total Plays
44
69
Yards / Play
8.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.17
Passing Yards
260
212
Comp/Att
13/17(76%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
15.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.77
+0.10
Rushing Yards
106
179
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
5
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.98
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-19
Sack EPA
-1.34
-3.18
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
50
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
-9.5
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-29.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-29.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U