GBPackers
7-6
30
TBD
Soldier Field
11°F
12 mph
27
CHIBears
3-10
TBD
Soldier Field
11°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
17
3
30
Bears
0
10
0
17
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
449
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
7.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
225
354
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.11
Rushing Yards
226
95
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
9.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.81
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-9.51
-6.09
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-7.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-83.9
Home QB Adjustment
-52.6
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
+39.0
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-52.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U