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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
7-6
30
TBD
Soldier Field
11°F
12 mph
27
CHIBears
3-10
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
11°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
17
3
30
Bears
0
10
0
17
27

Spread

CHI logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
451
449
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
7.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
225
354
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.11
Rushing Yards
226
95
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
9.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.81
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-9.51
-6.09
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-7.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-83.9
Home QB Adjustment
-52.6
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
+39.0
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Value
Ptile
10/09
-2.5
29
10/16
2.6
69
10/20
7.4
91
10/30
8.9
95
11/06
3.3
74
11/13
1.0
57
11/20
8.0
92
11/28
9.8
96
12/04
3.0
72
12/11
5.7
85
M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-52.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.0
48
12/04
-3.6
22
12/11
-0.7
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26

EPA

EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
8
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10

EPA

EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
22
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
22
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
7
W
P
U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/20
16
W
W
U
10/30
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
-22
L
L
O
11/20
-18
L
L
O
11/28
14
W
W
U
12/04
8
W
W
U
12/11
28
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U
11/27
-6
L
W
O
12/04
20
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U