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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-7
17
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph
24
CHIBears
9-4
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
3
11
3
17
Bears
7
7
0
10
24

Spread

CHI logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
325
332
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.00
Passing Yards
237
232
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.45
Rushing Yards
88
100
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.75
-5.32
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-39
-3
Sack EPA
-8.93
-0.97
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-5.40
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
-0.3
44
10/07
6.9
89
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
11/04
1.3
56
11/11
1.6
58
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
09/17
0.2
48
09/23
-3.6
24
09/30
15.2
99
10/14
7.0
90
10/21
4.9
79
10/28
2.7
68
11/04
-3.5
25
11/11
11.9
98
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
2
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
17
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
12
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
22
W
W
U
10/07
-8
L
L
O
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
11/04
-14
L
L
U
11/11
19
W
W
U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
38
W
W
O
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
O
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
32
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
W
O
11/18
5
W
W
O
11/22
7
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U