GBPackers
5-7
17
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph
24
CHIBears
9-4
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
3
11
3
17
Bears
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
332
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.00
Passing Yards
237
232
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.45
Rushing Yards
88
100
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.75
-5.32
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-39
-3
Sack EPA
-8.93
-0.97
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-5.40
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U