GBPackers
7-7
33
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
16 mph
28
CHIBears
8-7
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
13
7
13
33
Bears
7
0
14
7
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
345
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
6.1
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.19
Passing Yards
313
224
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.28
Rushing Yards
160
121
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.50
-4.66
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-5
-2
Sack EPA
+3.02
-0.99
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-76.1
Home QB Adjustment
-28.7
Away QB Adjustment
+47.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+47.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-28.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U