GBPackers
12-3
35
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
7 mph
16
CHIBears
8-7
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
21
0
14
35
Bears
7
6
3
0
16
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
356
Total Plays
44
74
Yards / Play
7.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.50
-0.03
Passing Yards
237
248
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
33/42(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.87
-0.19
Rushing Yards
79
108
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-4.93
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.53
-1.04
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.81
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
+25.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
7
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U