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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 19, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
9-7
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0
CHIBears
11-6
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model43.0%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
48.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
10/19
-0.1
50
10/26
10.5
98
11/02
0.0
51
11/10
-3.6
26
11/16
-1.6
40
11/23
-2.0
37
11/27
5.3
85
12/07
3.3
74
12/14
-0.8
44
12/20
-4.3
22
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Value
Ptile
11/02
5.8
88
11/09
5.5
87
11/16
-3.4
27
11/23
3.4
75
11/28
-5.1
17
12/07
0.1
52
12/14
4.3
79
12/20
4.3
79
12/28
4.6
82
01/04
-0.4
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
19
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
8
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18

EPA

EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
15
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
O
11/23
17
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/07
7
W
W
O
12/14
-8
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-17
L
L
O
01/04
-13
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
5
W
W
O
11/09
4
W
L
U
11/16
2
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
P
O
11/28
9
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
L
O
12/14
28
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/28
-4
L
L
O
01/04
-3
L
L
U