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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bengals week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
30
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
13 mph
34
CINBengals
1-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
14
0
24
Bengals
14
0
7
7
28

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
399
297
Total Plays
77
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.14
Passing Yards
217
215
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.08
Rushing Yards
182
82
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-22.97
-18.81
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-20
Sack EPA
-6.60
-9.13
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.68
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-26.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Value
Ptile
11/25
-4.8
20
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
-0.8
43
12/16
5.8
86
12/23
11.9
98
12/30
6.1
88
01/05
1.4
59
01/12
4.9
81
09/08
3.6
74
09/15
12.2
98
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
11/18
4.5
79
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Packers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
4
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
29
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
8
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Bengals logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
28
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
20
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
8
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
24
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
1
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-28
L
L
U
12/02
9
W
W
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
8
W
W
U
12/23
48
W
W
O
12/30
-3
L
L
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-14
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
22
W
W
U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U