GBPackers
1-1
30
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
13 mph
34
CINBengals
1-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
14
0
24
Bengals
14
0
7
7
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
297
Total Plays
77
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.14
Passing Yards
217
215
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.08
Rushing Yards
182
82
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-22.97
-18.81
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-20
Sack EPA
-6.60
-9.13
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.68
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Bengals+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-12.7
Final Difference
-28.7
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
4
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
29
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
8
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
28
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
8
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
24
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-8
O/U