GBPackers
3-1
25
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
12 mph
22
CINBengals
3-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
76°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
0
16
3
3
3
25
Bengals
7
7
0
8
0
22
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
369
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
7.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
333
266
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.06
Rushing Yards
133
103
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.22
-9.49
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-1.01
-4.86
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
21
Penalty EPA
--
-2.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+64.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
12
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U