GBPackers
10-3
13
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
10 mph
21
BUFBills
7-6
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
0
3
13
Bills
1
3
6
3
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
253
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.15
Passing Yards
175
140
Comp/Att
17/42(40%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.36
Rushing Yards
158
113
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.49
-1.86
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-2.32
-5.12
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
70
75
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-10.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.9
Market Regression
+12.9
Final Difference
-50.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.9
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U