nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ broncos week 7, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

GB logo
GBPackers
2-3
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph
19
DENBroncos
1-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
10
7
17
Broncos
3
6
7
3
19

Spread

DEN logo
-1

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
331
339
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
5.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
194
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.14
Rushing Yards
137
145
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.60
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-1.55
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
56
60
Penalty EPA
-7.35
-8.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+17.3
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+24.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
-12.6
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
10/09
-8.6
6
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Packers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
14
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Broncos logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
19
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
19
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
9
W
W
O
12/19
12
W
W
U
12/25
6
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
10/09
-4
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U