GBPackers
2-3
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph
19
DENBroncos
1-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
10
7
17
Broncos
3
6
7
3
19
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
339
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
5.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
194
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.14
Rushing Yards
137
145
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.60
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-1.55
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
56
60
Penalty EPA
-7.35
-8.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+17.3
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+24.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-20.7
Market Regression
+8.5
Final Difference
-7.5
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
19
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
8-2
O/U