GBPackers
2-0
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
79°F
10 mph
13
CLEBrowns
0-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
79°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
3
7
0
10
Browns
0
0
0
13
13
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
221
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
3.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.13
Passing Yards
149
125
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.24
Rushing Yards
81
96
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
56%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-0.29
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-34
-17
Sack EPA
-9.07
-4.50
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
75
90
Penalty EPA
-9.40
-9.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Browns Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U