GBPackers
6-1
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
7-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
7
7
24
Cardinals
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
334
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.08
Passing Yards
184
260
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.02
Rushing Yards
151
74
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.86
-7.73
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
-0.48
-3.44
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
59
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-1.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model61.8%
Spread Pick
Packers+6.5
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+48.0
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+7.7
Final Difference
83.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
3
15
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
22
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U