GBPackers
7-1
11
TBD
StubHub Center
79°F
2 mph
26
LACChargers
3-5
TBD
StubHub Center
79°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
3
8
11
Chargers
6
3
10
7
26
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
442
Total Plays
50
68
Yards / Play
3.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.16
Passing Yards
139
283
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.35
Rushing Yards
47
159
Rush Attempts
12
38
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-11
Sack EPA
-5.06
-2.40
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-4.33
-7.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.1
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+22.0
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
1
21
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
11
8
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U