GBPackers
7-1
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
51°F
12 mph
13
KCChiefs
4-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
51°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
0
7
7
Chiefs
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
237
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
5.0
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
179
160
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.24
Rushing Yards
122
77
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
17%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.36
+5.41
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-1.96
-2.30
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
19
33
Penalty EPA
-3.82
-3.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.5%
Spread Pick
Packers+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+40.6
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+123.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-130.4
Market Regression
+87.6
Final Difference
151.2
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-130.4
No recent game data available
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U