GBPackers
2-2
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
1-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
0
6
27
Colts
0
3
16
11
30
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
466
Total Plays
62
91
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.04
Passing Yards
207
345
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
31/56(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.06
Rushing Yards
149
121
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
20
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-2.89
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-28
-17
Sack EPA
-7.26
-1.61
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
89
100
Penalty EPA
-8.81
-9.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U