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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ colts week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
2-2
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
30
INDColts
1-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
0
6
27
Colts
0
3
16
11
30

Spread

IND logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
356
466
Total Plays
62
91
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.04
Passing Yards
207
345
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
31/56(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.06
Rushing Yards
149
121
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
20
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-2.89
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-28
-17
Sack EPA
-7.26
-1.61
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
89
100
Penalty EPA
-8.81
-9.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
+6.5
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99
01/15
1.8
65
09/09
4.4
77
09/13
-4.4
23
09/24
-4.8
20
09/30
9.6
96
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.8
13
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
4.5
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Packers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29

EPA

EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
20
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Colts logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
11
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
21
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O
01/15
-17
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/24
-2
L
L
U
09/30
1
W
L
O
IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
01/01
-6
L
L
U
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
-5
L
L
U