GBPackers
1-0
17
TBD
FedExField
62°F
6 mph
31
WASCommanders
1-1
TBD
FedExField
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
7
0
17
Commanders
14
14
0
3
31
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
386
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
240
--
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.30
Rushing Yards
100
166
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
43%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.54
-4.60
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-4.37
--
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
115
66
Penalty EPA
-9.66
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
-5.5
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
24
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
3
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U