GBPackers
3-3
21
TBD
FedExField
70°F
023
WASCommanders
2-4
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
1
0
7
15
Commanders
3
7
10
3
23
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
364
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
198
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.03
Rushing Yards
38
166
Rush Attempts
12
38
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
0%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
--
7
3rd Down Attempts
6
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.80
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.03
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
54
Penalty EPA
-9.57
-5.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-92
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-25.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U