nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ commanders week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

GB logo
GBPackers
4-5
24
TBD
FedExField
38°F
23 mph
42
WASCommanders
5-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
38°F
23 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
0
14
24
Commanders
7
6
9
20
42

Spread

WAS logo
-3

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
424
515
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
6.5
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.34
Passing Yards
340
364
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
12.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.76
Rushing Yards
84
151
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.49
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-11
Sack EPA
-1.66
-3.84
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
59
40
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-11.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model56.0%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
+7.3
Final Difference
42.2
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
01/16
1.4
61
09/11
3.0
72
09/18
-2.7
29
09/25
3.7
76
10/09
-2.5
29
10/16
2.6
69
10/20
7.4
91
10/30
8.9
95
11/06
3.3
74
11/13
1.0
57
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
01/10
1.1
58
09/12
1.8
63
09/18
2.3
67
09/25
0.8
55
10/02
0.0
49
10/09
1.4
59
10/16
1.4
59
10/23
5.9
86
10/30
7.7
92
11/13
4.6
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Packers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24

EPA

EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Commanders logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
6
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
30
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-6
L
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
P
U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/20
16
W
W
U
10/30
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
-22
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-22
L
L
O
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
11
W
W
O
10/09
6
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
0
T
W
O
11/13
6
W
W
O