GBPackers
4-5
24
TBD
FedExField
38°F
23 mph
42
WASCommanders
5-3
TBD
FedExField
38°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
0
14
24
Commanders
7
6
9
20
42
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
515
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
6.5
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.34
Passing Yards
340
364
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
12.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.76
Rushing Yards
84
151
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.49
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-11
Sack EPA
-1.66
-3.84
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
59
40
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-11.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Packers+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
44.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U