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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ commanders week 18, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
10-6
35
TBD
FedExField
61°F
14 mph
18
WASCommanders
9-7
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
61°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
17
7
11
35
Commanders
3
6
7
0
16

Spread

GB logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
348
354
Total Plays
70
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.12
Passing Yards
207
270
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.25
Rushing Yards
141
84
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-5.86
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-59
Sack EPA
+0.33
-17.02
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
23
55
Penalty EPA
-3.78
-6.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+48.7
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+75.0
Home QB Adjustment
+41.7
Away QB Adjustment
-33.3
Market Regression
+0.0
Final Difference
0.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-33.3
Value
Ptile
11/01
-3.5
25
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
12/03
3.3
75
12/13
2.4
67
12/20
-4.3
19
12/27
-10.7
1
01/03
-2.8
31
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+41.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
12.6
99
11/08
-2.5
32
11/15
5.8
86
11/22
-3.3
27
11/29
5.1
83
12/07
-0.4
49
12/13
3.1
74
12/20
12.4
99
12/26
7.3
92
01/03
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Packers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
8
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Commanders logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
28
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
4
W
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/27
-30
L
L
U
01/03
-7
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
1
W
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/15
33
W
W
O
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/29
6
W
W
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/03
11
W
W
O