GBPackers
10-6
35
TBD
FedExField
61°F
14 mph
18
WASCommanders
9-7
TBD
FedExField
61°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
17
7
11
35
Commanders
3
6
7
0
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
354
Total Plays
70
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.12
Passing Yards
207
270
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.25
Rushing Yards
141
84
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-5.86
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-59
Sack EPA
+0.33
-17.02
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
23
55
Penalty EPA
-3.78
-6.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model49.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+48.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+75.0
Home QB Adjustment
+41.7
Away QB Adjustment
-33.3
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
-1.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-33.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+41.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
8
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U