GBPackers
3-1
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
024
DALCowboys
3-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
3
14
3
34
Cowboys
0
0
10
14
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
563
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
5.2
8.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
215
441
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.04
Rushing Yards
120
122
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
31
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-22
Sack EPA
-3.33
-6.62
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
73
124
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-9.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+74.2
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
98.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
16
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U