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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cowboys week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
3-1
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
24
DALCowboys
3-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
3
14
3
34
Cowboys
0
0
10
14
24

Spread

GB logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
335
563
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
5.2
8.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
215
441
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.04
Rushing Yards
120
122
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
24
31
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-22
Sack EPA
-3.33
-6.62
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
73
124
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-9.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+75.0
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
97.6
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
12/16
-3.0
27
12/23
11.8
98
12/30
-7.1
10
09/05
-3.7
26
09/15
1.3
63
09/22
0.9
59
09/26
7.8
92
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Value
Ptile
12/09
7.0
90
12/16
-5.8
14
12/23
1.7
59
12/30
6.0
84
01/05
2.8
69
01/12
3.8
74
09/08
13.4
99
09/15
10.4
97
09/22
1.1
61
09/29
-1.1
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
16
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
6
W
W
O
12/30
-31
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
11
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
6
W
W
O
12/16
-23
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
P
U
12/30
1
W
W
O
01/05
2
W
L
O
01/12
-8
L
L
O
09/08
18
W
W
O
09/15
10
W
W
O
09/22
25
W
W
U
09/29
-2
L
L
U