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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cowboys week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
6-6
37
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
36
DALCowboys
7-6
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
14
20
37
Cowboys
13
13
3
7
36

Spread

GB logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
433
466
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.14
Passing Yards
283
332
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.02
Rushing Yards
150
134
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
7.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
26
27
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
54%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
-6.99
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-26
Sack EPA
-3.53
-4.99
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
59
79
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+119.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-129.9
Market Regression
-39.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Flynn headshot

M. Flynn

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-129.9
Value
Ptile
12/19
0.2
50
01/01
13.3
99
09/29
-7.6
9
11/28
-13.1
1
12/08
-2.2
38
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Value
Ptile
09/29
2.9
70
10/06
11.8
98
10/13
-3.1
30
10/20
-3.2
29
10/27
1.7
62
11/03
2.2
66
11/10
-5.6
16
11/24
-2.7
34
11/28
0.5
53
12/09
-0.5
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
4
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
3
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
13
W
W
U
10/13
2
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
10/27
13
W
W
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/10
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-14
L
L
U
11/24
0
T
L
O
11/28
-30
L
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
15
W
W
U
10/20
14
W
W
U
10/27
-1
L
W
O
11/03
4
W
L
U
11/10
-32
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
O
12/09
-17
L
L
O