GBPackers
6-6
37
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
036
DALCowboys
7-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
14
20
37
Cowboys
13
13
3
7
36
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
466
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.14
Passing Yards
283
332
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.02
Rushing Yards
150
134
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
7.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
27
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
54%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
-6.99
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-26
Sack EPA
-3.53
-4.99
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
59
79
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+119.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-129.9
Market Regression
-39.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-129.9
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U