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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cowboys week 19, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
11-6
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
31
DALCowboys
13-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
7
6
34
Cowboys
3
10
0
18
31

Spread

GB logo
+5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
413
431
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
6.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.22
Passing Yards
326
291
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.14
Rushing Yards
87
140
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
55%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-6.61
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-29
-11
Sack EPA
-2.93
-2.59
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
22
50
Penalty EPA
-2.90
-5.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+95.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+35.8
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
64.9
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
3.3
74
11/13
1.0
57
11/20
8.0
92
11/28
9.8
96
12/04
3.0
72
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-2.5
30
12/24
10.5
97
01/01
9.2
95
01/08
5.2
83
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
10/30
3.0
72
11/06
7.2
90
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
12/01
-0.7
43
12/11
-9.4
3
12/18
6.3
88
12/26
5.6
85
01/01
-5.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
8
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
2
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
6
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
-22
L
L
O
11/20
-18
L
L
O
11/28
14
W
W
U
12/04
8
W
W
U
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
O
12/24
13
W
W
O
01/01
7
W
W
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
25
W
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
12/01
2
W
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
L
U
12/26
21
W
W
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U