GBPackers
10-6
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
30°F
18 mph
16
PHIEagles
10-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
30°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
7
0
21
Eagles
0
3
7
6
16
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
352
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
171
271
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.07
Rushing Yards
138
81
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.02
+1.54
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-4.89
-5.44
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
+43.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+43.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U