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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ falcons week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
4-2
32
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
33
ATLFalcons
4-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
17
0
8
32
Falcons
10
9
7
7
33

Spread

GB logo
+3

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
333
367
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.25
Passing Yards
223
277
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.34
Rushing Yards
110
90
Rush Attempts
20
20
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-5.96
-3.07
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
68
46
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-5.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
12/27
-10.7
1
01/03
-2.8
31
01/10
-0.1
50
01/16
1.4
61
09/11
3.0
72
09/18
-2.7
29
09/25
3.7
76
10/09
-2.5
29
10/16
2.6
69
10/20
7.4
91
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
12/20
-2.3
34
12/27
3.8
78
01/03
1.6
63
09/11
4.1
79
09/18
8.1
93
09/26
1.6
60
10/02
12.5
99
10/09
0.7
55
10/16
3.4
75
10/23
-1.7
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Packers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Falcons logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
4
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-30
L
L
U
01/03
-7
L
L
U
01/10
17
W
W
O
01/16
-6
L
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
P
U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/20
16
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O