GBPackers
4-2
32
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
033
ATLFalcons
4-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
17
0
8
32
Falcons
10
9
7
7
33
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
367
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.25
Passing Yards
223
277
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.34
Rushing Yards
110
90
Rush Attempts
20
20
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-5.96
-3.07
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
68
46
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-5.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+66.9
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U