GBPackers
7-3
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
17 mph
38
NYGGiants
6-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
0
0
10
Giants
17
14
7
0
38
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
390
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.29
Passing Yards
201
243
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.49
Rushing Yards
116
147
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.39
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-6
Sack EPA
-11.50
-0.95
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
49
24
Penalty EPA
-5.74
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
20
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U